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JP Morgan raises Aristocrat’s 2027 EBITDA forecast by 3.7 percent
The bank expects nearly AUD2.86 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 8.8 percent from Aristocrat’s reported 2026 result.
JP Morgan has increased its 2027 adjusted EBITDA forecast for Australian gaming supplier Aristocrat Leisure Ltd by 3.7 percent to nearly AUD2.86 billion (US$1.94 billion), citing growth in its machine base and interactive business.
The forecast for the year ending September 30, 2027, is 8.8 percent higher than the AUD2.64 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation Aristocrat reported for the year ended September 30, 2026, GGRAsia reported.
After Aristocrat published its full-year results on Thursday, the bank also increased its 2027 estimate for net profit after tax and before amortisation by 2.6 percent to AUD1.73 billion.
In a Thursday memo, analysts Don Carducci, George Stewart and Louis Loader said the gaming division would receive a full year of earnings from machines installed in the preceding financial year.
Aristocrat added about 6,500 units to its North American gaming operations installed base in the 12 months to September 30, 2026. The additions and the US$53.93 average daily fee per unit both came in above JP Morgan’s expectations.
The bank expects further installations from new cabinets and game titles, including additions to the Monopoly range. For Aristocrat Interactive, it expects growth from online casino content distribution, iLottery contracts and platform use.
JP Morgan estimated that Aristocrat’s U.S. online slot market share rose to about 8.0 percent in September, more than double its June level. The analysts pointed to the planned early 2027 online launch of Dragon Link as a potential contributor toward the division’s US$1 billion revenue target for the year ending September 2029.
At social casino business Product Madness, margins exceeded 50.0 percent as direct-to-consumer sales accounted for 30.0 percent of social casino revenue, the bank noted.
The bank also said cash conversion weakened: gross operating cash flow as a share of EBITDA fell to 85.0 percent from 94.0 percent a year earlier as inventories and receivables increased. Recovery of AUD45 million in legal costs related to Light & Wonder Inc partly offset the effect.
Aristocrat said Thursday it had appointed Dafne Guisard chief executive-elect, subject to required regulatory approvals. She is due to replace Trevor Croker, who plans to retire in April 2027.