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Suspected Ballon d’Or leak exposes prediction market enforcement gap
Twelve Polymarket accounts reportedly wagered $264,000 on the same top-five order before the ceremony. French police have opened an investigation.
A suspected leak of the 2026 Ballon d’Or rankings has raised questions about how European authorities can address the use of confidential information on prediction markets, after 12 Polymarket accounts reportedly wagered on the correct top-five order before the ceremony.
French financial outlet Upside reported on 23 October, three days before the ceremony, that the accounts had placed matching wagers on the men’s rankings. The accounts were created between 1-20 October and reportedly wagered $264,000, according to iGaming Business.
Six of the accounts allegedly placed their wagers within 15 minutes of being created. Harry Kane won the award, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi, matching the predicted order.
The Guardian reported that event organizer France Football contacted police, who subsequently opened an investigation. The matching wagers raised concerns that the rankings had been leaked.
William O’Rorke, a partner at French law firm ORWL Avocats, told iGaming Business that EU market abuse rules apply to financial instruments traded on a financial market or a multilateral or organized trading facility within the EU. A wager on the Ballon d’Or, he said, “falls solely under the regulations governing betting”.
O’Rorke said a person who leaked confidential rankings could face prosecution for breach of trust under Article 314-1 of the French Penal Code. A bettor who knowingly used leaked rankings could face charges of receiving stolen goods under Article 321-1, he said.
France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, ordered internet service providers in July to block Polymarket, citing concerns about unlicensed gambling and player protection. In June, nine European gambling regulators issued a joint warning against unlicensed prediction market platforms.
Gibraltar has taken a different approach, introducing a dedicated prediction market framework in July. Two operators are now licensed there, iGaming Business reported.